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Fall election now unlikely

CBC reports this afternoon that, “The NDP says it plans to prop up the Conservatives in order to pass a Tory plan to extend employment insurance for long-tenured workers — a move that appears to rule out a fall election. …(NDP MP Thomas) Mulcair said his party will support the Tories until they pass the legislation, unveiled Monday. That means a Liberal no-confidence motion expected the first week of October is likely to fail. …The Tories need support from either the NDP or the Bloc, since the Liberals have already said they will vote against the government on any confidence motion.”

The Globe and Mail adds that NDP support “would mean passing it through three votes in the Commons, then the Senate, and probably until any possibility of a fall election has passed.”

We will still need to monitor this situation, but it would now appear that a November 9 or 16 election is unlikely. Depending on how long it takes to pass the Employment Insurance legislation, and taking into account the unpopularity of a winter election, it may well be the spring before we see the next federal election.

The CBC report is at http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/16/ndp-election-tories.html. The Globe and Mail report is at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-to-prop-up-tories-until-ei-money-flows/article1289920/. There is also Toronto Star analysis at http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/696587.