CBC reports, “Half of Canadians would not consider voting for the Conservatives in the next federal election, a new Nanos Research poll suggests. …The online survey found that 51.5 per cent of Canadians would not consider voting for the Conservatives, compared to 36.4 per cent seven months earlier. …The survey (also) showed the number of Canadians that would consider voting for the Liberals grew to 62.4 per cent, from 51.5 per cent last November. Similarly, the number of Canadians willing to consider voting for the New Democrats also climbed, up to 58.4 per cent from 50 per cent seven months earlier.”
“(Another Nanos Research poll released last week) showed support for the Liberals at 34.2 per cent, Conservatives at 31.3 per cent and the New Democrats at 25.3 per cent.” The May 2011 federal election had the Liberals at 18.9 per cent, the Conservatives at 39.6 per cent, and the NDP at 30.6 per cent.
In January, a Forum Poll conducted for the National Post asked how people would vote if Justin Trudeau were to win the Liberal leadership (which he did in April) and then translated those findings into seat projections. At that time, they found:
Liberals – 35% – 112 seats
Conservatives – 33% – 120 seats
NDP – 21% – 50 seats
Bloc – 7% – 25 seats
Greens – 3% – 1 seat
The Nanos Research poll from last week is fairly close to the Forum Poll results in January, and while it is notable that even with a lower popular vote the Conservatives could still win more seats than the Liberals, the polls still imply Harper would not secure a second majority government.
Nik Nanos comments, “The Conservatives are turning off voters.” CBC also notes, “Nanos explained that the number of accessible voters can be more important than a so-called ‘horse race’ poll, which asks voters which party would get their vote if an election was held today, because it speaks to ‘who has the greatest potential for growth’.”
As the Harper government slips in the polls, there is increased speculation about a major cabinet shuffle in mid-July, a re-setting of the Harper agenda at the Conservative national policy convention postponed to sometime this fall in Calgary, and a re-branding of Harper in which he’ll “warm up a little”. Important cautionary notes include that the next federal election may still be more than two years from now (scheduled for October 2015) and in that election there will be thirty new House of Commons seats at play.
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