Sarkozy election posters in Marseille.
This morning Globe and Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson writes that, “Europe is splitting into two zones: a northern, economically stable area centred on Germany, and a southern one of high unemployment, dismal growth and poor productivity. …Europe’s being squeezed to the pips, with unemployment sky high in Britain and 10.9 per cent in the 17 countries of the euro zone. A year ago, unemployment was 9.9 per cent in the euro zone. …It’s with Europe that Canada is close to finishing negotiations for a free-trade and investment treaty. When launched, the possibilities of the treaty seemed more promising than they do now with Europe mired in such an economic morass.”
Simpson adds, “The rise (in unemployment) illustrates that fierce austerity in key nations has resulted in more joblessness and corresponding political disillusion over the state of the economy in many countries.” This corresponds with a point made by Council of Canadians Board member Robert Chernomas in his new paper on austerity that will be posted to our website in the coming weeks.
Simpson also notes, “The Germans want the southerners to pull up their socks and make their economies more competitive; the southerners want Germany to agree to ease the continent’s pain by emphasizing growth over fiscal rigour. France, under Nicolas Sarkozy, has more or less sided with Germany. But if, as the polls suggest, Socialist François Hollande becomes president on Sunday, he’ll side with the southerners: He’s proposed big new spending for France (already highly indebted and burdened with endemic deficits), new spending to stimulate growth for Europe, fresh taxes on the rich.”
Also commenting on the French presidential election tomorrow, London-based Globe and Mail columnist Doug Saunders writes, “Nicolas Sarkozy has led the way, pledging to reintroduce trade protectionism, reinstitute passport checks and cut immigration. His challenger François Hollande has also suggested more protectionist policies and less immigration. As a result, four out of five French voters now believe that globalization is bad for their livelihoods, and that borders should be closed to foreign investment and immigration.”
While Saunders makes the point that “the French are the globalizers, not the globalized” – e.g., “The French company Veolia Environnement’s 331,226 workers provide garbage collection, water treatment, street lighting and public transportation in 77 countries” – the comments by both Sarkozy and Hollande on trade and protectionism, as well as general European public opinon, could have interesting implications for the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) that we will continue to assess.
As noted in a recent Toronto Star article, “(The) passage of the deal requires not just the approval of the European Parliament but the individual EU member nations…” It had been expected that CETA would be signed in August, but now, based on recent comments by the European Union president Pia Olsen Dyhr, it could be delayed to October or even later in 2012. Once signed, the ratification process could take up to two years in Europe, putting our deadline to stop the deal sometime in late-2014 or even early-2015.
It should also be remembered that in a July 2011 blog, Council of Canadians trade campaigner Stuart Trew wrote about CAW economist Jim Stanford’s comments on CETA and the deepening economic crisis in Europe. Trew wrote, “(Stanford argues) Europe will be in worse shape than Canada for a while thanks to government austerity measures. ‘Our market is growing, theirs is not. Guess who’ll get more new business from the deal?’ …Stanford says Harper and gang are charging ahead with an EU deal to pretend they have a plan for the worsening global economic crisis. He concludes, ‘I throw my lot in with the financial experts. I’d say it’s time to reduce, not increase, our national economic exposure to Europe.’” For the full blog, go to http://canadians.org/blog/?p=9652.
And in July 2010, Stanford wrote in the Globe and Mail that, “A truly mutual economic partnership with Europe would be great – one where they buy as much from us as they sell to us, and good stuff, too, not just resources. But a free-trade agreement (like the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) won’t do that. Meantime, we’ll be dragged down by Europe’s coming funk, which will easily last a decade. …In case our negotiators haven’t noticed, Europe is sinking under the weight of recession, debt and profound institutional failure. Is this really the best time to jump on board that particular ship? …Better to take a pass on this one, and negotiate a better deal with the Europeans somewhere down the road, once they’re back on their feet.” More on that at http://canadians.org/blog/?p=5075.
Make a comment!
To have your say on these two columns, go to http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/europe-is-divided-and-its-not-alone/article2423355/ and/or http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/doug-saunders/the-french-are-the-globalizers-not-the-globalized/article2423356/, scroll to the bottom and make a comment.
For more on our campaign against CETA, please go to http://canadians.org/ceta.
