The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is forecasting a huge increase in tar sands production – which means they will likely continue to push for substantial new infrastructure including pipelines and rail facilities to move it to market.
The Globe and Mail reports, “The forecast shows oil sands production rising to 3.2 million barrels per day by 2020 – up 60,000 from the 2012 estimate – while non-oil sands output surges to 1.6 million barrels per day by 2020, a lift of over 200,000 over last year’s outlook. Virtually all of the growth is expected in Alberta. …Even if every new pipeline is built, CAPP predicts oil companies will run out of room in fewer than 15 years, by 2026. That assumes a series of controversial projects can gain sufficient political and regulatory support for construction, including Keystone XL; TransCanada’s Energy East pipeline; the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline to Burnaby, B.C.; Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway; and the expansion of Enbridge’s Alberta Clipper system. Not one of those projects has necessary approvals; several have yet to make formal regulatory applications. The prospects for some, including Northern Gateway, are far from certain.”
The article also notes, “CAPP has raised 2030 production expectations by about 500,000 barrels per day – but that rise actually means an additional 820,000 barrels per day will need to be pumped through pipelines or shipped on trains, since heavy oil sands bitumen must be mixed with lighter oils to enable it to flow.”
“The report also makes clear industry’s need to find buyers outside Canada and the U.S. is key, since ‘The potential growth of western Canadian crude oil supplies exceeds the demand growth outlook in the whole of the North American market’.”
This is all happening in the context of measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere now topping 400 ppm. Tar sands account for about 5 per cent of Canada’s emissions. By 2020, it is predicted that the tar sands will grow to account for 12 per cent of our national emissions.
Council of Canadians chairperson Maude Barlow has stated, “Going after these pipelines is the most important fight we can have right now. Pipelines are the bloodlines of the tar sands. If we allow these pipeline to go ahead, it’s going to mean that the industry is setting energy policy in Canada. These pipelines mean that you’ll need to keep them full and that means a massive expansion of the tar sands and that means that we will never be able to get the alternative energy future we need.”
Last year, Barlow went on a multi-city speaking tour in British Columbia and Alberta to speak against the Trans Mountain, Northern Gateway and Pacific Trails pipeline. She also spoke at a major rally outside the White House in Washington, DC opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline. The Council of Canadians intends to launch new campaigns against the Energy East and Alberta Clipper pipelines and to continue to express concerns about the reversal of the Line 9 pipeline.
For more, please read:
VIDEO: Maude Barlow speaks at ‘no pipelines, no tankers’ protest in Victoria
NEWS: Trans Mountain pipeline faces major political and regulatory obstacles
NEWS: Harper retains power to make decision on Northern Gateway pipeline
NEWS: Saint John mayor boasts of Energy East pipeline export options in the Bay of Fundy
Thousands #Surround the White House to say ‘No KXL’
