Quantifying Risk: Calculating the probability of an Energy East pipeline rupture

TransCanada is proposing to build the Energy East pipeline, which would ship 1.1 million barrels of crude per day from the Alberta-based tar sands (or oil sands) to New Brunswick. The Energy East project is the largest tar sands pipeline proposed yet. It would be larger than any existing pipeline in Canada. The multi-use oil pipeline would convert an existing up to 40-year-old natural gas pipeline from Saskatchewan to Ontario. New pipeline would be added in Eastern Ontario, and would pass through Quebec to a new major export port in Saint John, New Brunswick.

This briefing paper examines the likelihood of a rupture and provides spill volume estimates for the proposed Energy East pipeline.

Energy East    


         Energy East would have a 15% chance of a full bore rupture per year.



Wednesday, September 2, 2015