A Forum Poll for the National Post reports on party popularity and the seats they would win if an election were held today says:
Conservatives – 36% – 144 seats
NDP – 28% – 73 seats
Liberals – 25% – 68 seats
Bloc – 7% – 22 seats
Greens – 4% – 1 seat
While the National Post reports this as a ‘surge in support’ for the Conservatives (because they were at 33% in the polls last month), it’s down from their 39% popular vote in the last election and the seat projection would see them lose 21 seats and their majority in the House.
The article also reports that if Justin Trudeau wins the Liberal leadership:
Conservatives – 33% – 120 seats
Liberals – 35% – 112 seats
NDP – 21% – 50 seats
Bloc – 7% – 25 seats
Greens – 3% – 1 seat
Current standings in the House of Commons:
Conservatives – 165 seats
NDP – 101 seats
Liberals – 35 seats
Bloc – 4 seats
Greens – 1 seat
Independent – 2 seats
While there are 308 seats in the House of Commons now (with 155 seats needed for a majority government), there will be 338 seats in the next election. The 30 new seats will be distributed as folows: Ontario (15 more seats), Alberta (6 more seats), British Columbia (6 more seats), and Quebec (3 more seats).
The next federal election is expected to take place in October 2015.
